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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, offering lots of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to think so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a specifically popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market as well. Bear in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked to several bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really highly regarded player."
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Although highly regarded cash has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public bettors are piling on Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We chatted with multiple bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually sneaked up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The . "I would not be shocked if this line sneaks up a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently invite any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd opportunity it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
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So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before reputable money pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A a little greater bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The total has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest relocation of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio wagerers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
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No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Basically, the wagering action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Coming in On Texas'
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